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  • Writer's pictureJohn Tasci

Tesla Inc (TSLA) Fundamental Analysis and Ratings

Updated: Jan 20, 2023



Company profile


Tesla Inc, formerly known as Tesla Motors, was founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. In February 2004, Elon Musk became the biggest shareholder of Tesla, with a $6.5 million investment. He's still the CEO of Tesla since 2008, but it looks to change soon. Tesla specializes in manufacturing electric automobiles, solar panels, and batteries for cars and home power storage.


Tesla is the highest-valued car company, with Toyota standing in second place. Tesla dominates the EV market, controlling 65.4%. That looks great, but in 2020 they controlled 79.4% of the EV market. Competitors are continuing to grow and Tesla will continue to lose market share.



  1. Tesla Model Y - 191,451 US Sales

  2. Tesla Model 3 - 156,357 US Sales

  3. Ford Mustang Mach-E - 28,089 US Sales

  4. Tesla Model S - 23,464 US Sales

  5. Chevrolet Bolt EV/EUV - 22,012 US Sales

3 of the top 5 cars are Teslas and hold the top 2 spots easily. Tesla has recently incurred a heavy downfall as Elon Musk has shifted focus to Twitter and could shift to a new CEO.


Tesla Inc employs 99,920 and compensates them well beyond average. Tesla only hires top talent and they make it known through their products.



Key Data


Stats provided by Nasdaq (1/15/2023)

​Exchange

​NASDAQ-GS

Market Cap

$386,508,899,758

Sector

Consumer Discretionary

P/E Ratio

37.82

Industry

Auto Manufacturing

Forward P/E 1 Yr.

34.32

1 Year Target

$230.00

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$3.24

Share Volume

180,714,119

​52 Week High / Low

$384.29 / $101.81

Average Volume

126,499,916

​Beta

1.48


Tesla Inc. Valuation


Valuation Statistics

Price / Book (P/B)

9.59

Price / Free Cash Flow

​42.80

Price / Sales

​5.64

Price / Earnings

​37.82

  • The average P/B Ratio of Auto Manufacturers is 0.95

  • The average P/FCF Ratio of Auto Manufacturers is 18.39

  • The average P/S Ratio of Auto Manufacturers is 1.00

  • The average P/E Ratio of Auto Manufacturers is 13.08

Auto Manufacturers are more of a value play than growth. Tesla is in a separate category from these stocks. Tesla's better viewed as a tech company. Still, the products fit in the auto manufacturing category. Today's valuation of Tesla is overvalued based on all the ratios.


Industry and company-wise, Tesla is overvalued. Management is also uncertain about the future and could crush the stock even lower. Who will take over as CEO? Price cuts have also begun as competition's starting to catch up and Tesla hasn't been able to create new models. The company won't be valued as a leading EV company in the future which could significantly impact the company.




Tesla Inc. Swot Analysis


Strengths


- Top Employer Company

- Most Valuable Automotive Company

- Best-in-class Electric Cars

- Cross Sell and Diversification

- Innovative Company

Weaknesses


- Manufacturing Complications

- Unable to meet demand

- Lack of high-volume production

- Shortage of Batteries

- Financial uncertainty

- Potential Elon Musk departure

Opportunities


- Battery Production technology in-house

- Introduction of the pick-up truck

- Exploit Air-Taxi Market

Threats


- Product Liability Claims

- Extensive Competition

- Product Defects

- Self-Driving Cars Are Still a Concern for Pedestrians

- High-Risk Factor Due to Usage of Lithium-ion


Tesla Inc. Balance Sheet Overview



Looking at Tesla's quarterly balance sheet, one noticeable thing is that the company's assets have increased rapidly, while liabilities have only slowly increased. Total assets have more than doubled from 2018 to 2021.


Overall, from the balance sheet, we can see that Tesla has remained strong growth throughout the years. they still achieve tremendous growth and their balance sheets show that the recent dump could be a buying opportunity.


Tesla's balance sheet remains strong and shows no signs of worry and will continue to increase every year.




Tesla Inc. Income Statement Overview



Data Provided by Macro Trends


Tesla has kept consistent revenue growth from 2017 - 2020. Then in 2021 experienced a huge jump in revenue. This was due to the spike in electric car interest, the cyber truck announcements, and Tesla's branding.


Revenue growth of Tesla

  • 2017 - 67.98% Y/Y Change

  • 2018 - 82.51% Y/Y Change

  • 2019.- 14.52% Y/Y Change

  • 2020 - 28.31% Y/Y Change

  • 2021 - 70.67% Y/Y Change

  • 2022 - 58.21% Y/Y Change (Projected)

Tesla's gross profit margins are on the lower side, reaching 25.3% in 2021.


2022 revenue is projected to increase year over year and net income is also expected to increase. Net income change hasn't been steady over the year experiencing ups and down each quarter. Price cuts could be a red flag for future net income, so it's currently in an uncertain situation.


It's hard to come up with conclusions based on 2021 and 2022 considering how different both years were. 2021 was a rich growth stock rally and 2022 was destruction for the stock market. Tesla's future forecast should be researched further to calculate the opportunities for increasing profits because they're currently struggling with that. Price cuts and uncertainty of Elon Musk puts a lot of fear in Tesla stock and can be considered overvalued for now.



Tesla (TSLA) technical analysis


Technical Analysis report brought to you with the trading view.


1-month Summary of Tesla


Oscillators & Moving Averages Signal


Outline of Oscillator Results



Outline of Moving Averages Result



Technical analysis indicators show that Tesla stock is a sell.


Technical analysis combined with fundamental analysis helps you create a price entry to a stock, but the technical analysis shouldn't be your primary research. It's more so used for short-term trades or timing purchases.


A good company will continue to rise and get past hard times, growth stocks like Tesla get crushed in market downturns and flourish during uprises. But, it might be different for Tesla this time as most people have recognized it as overvalued and with the uncertainty it currently brings.



Tesla (TSLA) Stock Price Forecast


Price, target, rating, and forecast data are provided by Stock Analysis. This data is sourced from Wall Street analysts and other sell-side and buy-side analysts.


Analysts' price targets were provided on 1/16/2023 with a current price of $122.40.


Low

Average

Median

High

Price

$24.58

$258.39

$262.89

$457.80

Change

-79.92%

+111.10%

+114.78%

+274.02%

According to 47 Wall Street analysts, the average 12-month stock price forecast for TSLA stock is $258.39, which predicts an increase of 111.10%. The lowest target is $24.58 and the highest is $457.80. 12 analysts rate TSLA stock a "Strong Buy", 17 analysts "Buy", 14 analysts "Hold", 3 analysts "Sell", and 1 analyst and Strong Sell".


Analyst consensus for TSLA stock is a buy!




Analyst Ratings



Financial Forecasts



Tesla's revenue is expected to continue tremendous growth in revenue and profit over the next 5 years. Analysts believe Tesla will be more profitable and continue increasing revenue. If these do hold, then Tesla is extremely cheap and is a Strong Buy.


Revenue Forecast


Revenue Growth Forecast



EPS Forecast



EPS Growth


Analysts' forecasts indicate that Tesla's financials will increase in the future. The average forecasted price of $258.39 is unreasonable due to Tesla's huge drop, price cuts, and management uncertainty. With the S&P 500 returning an average of 10% yearly, TSLA expected price target provides a 111.10% increase in the next 12 months. Keep Tesla on your watchlist, as uncertainty clears, Tesla is sure to increase.


Tesla (TSLA) Stock News and Macroeconomics Affecting the Company


Recently, Tesla had much bad news roaming the media. Tesla cuts prices of cars, wall street analysts cut forecasts, Elon Musk goes on trial for a 2018 plan to take Tesla private, high inflation, and increasing competition. A lot has been going on for Tesla stock as it has fallen from $400 to $130.


Has Tesla already priced in the bad news? Price cuts have increased demand for Tesla cars. Stores have hit a record high in sales with Model 3 and Y with price cuts up to $13,000. Macroeconomics doesn't seem to be a factor anymore as people are still spending a ton of money.


The main worry is Elon Musk's presence which is now limited. A new CEO hunt should begin soon for Tesla.


On the macro side, inflation has started to cool down and has hit 7.1% for the 12 months that ended in November 2022. Interest rates are 4.25% to 4.5%, and anticipate another three-quarters percentage point in 2023. The Fed should stop raising interest rates shortly when inflation goes to normal.



Dividends


TSLA stock currently has no dividends. TSLA doesn't seek to pay dividends as they want to continue innovating and expanding. TSLA competitors Ford Motor Company and General Motors pay dividends. Ford paid 4.69% and General Motors paid 0.97%. Tesla doesn't look to copy its competitors, so this isn't the right stock for you if you want dividends.


My Rating on Tesla Stock


I don't own Tesla shares, but I do have it on my watchlist. Tesla is the leading EV car company and will continue to hold that position, but with the increasing competition, the company's share of the EV market will decrease each year in the short term. Tesla might've priced in the bad news as it's up over 25% in the last few weeks.


I have Tesla as a hold because of the huge uncertainty and risk it brings. The stock is way overvalued compared to its competitors, but this is the way Tesla stock is driven. There is a lot of hype and they continue to keep innovating. My 12-month forecast for Tesla is between $110 - $150, it should stay flat throughout the year. I do expect Tesla to report a surprising uprise in earnings after the price cuts, but that's a big bet if you're relying on that as your reason for investing.


This is not financial advice, this is Tasci's advice. Research more about Tesla and see if it fits your views as an investor. You can purchase Tesla stock on Robinhood and receive free stock when you open an account.


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